Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.6 | 8.4% | 17 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 1.7 | 9.4% | 19 | 0.14% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 4.1 | 22.7% | 46 | 0.22% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 2.7 | 15.3% | 31 | 0.23% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 2.3 | 11.3% | 23 | 0.22% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.1 | 7.4% | 15 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.9 | 7.9% | 16 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 2 | 3.7 | 17.2% | 35 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 20 | 19.3 | 100% | 203 | 0.19% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | 30292 | 234302 | 722 | 185 | 170 |
| Apr 16 | 30299 | 234459 | 722 | 185 | 165 |
| Apr 17 | 30301 | 234547 | 722 | 185 | 135 |
| Apr 18 | 30332 | 234695 | 723 | 185 | 155 |
| Apr 19 | 30350 | 234910 | 723 | 185 | 164 |
| Apr 20 | 30393 | 235143 | 723 | 185 | 199 |
| Apr 21 | 30413 | 235280 | 723 | 185 | 203 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | 18695 | 155389 | 699 | 182 | 66 |
| Apr 16 | 18700 | 155519 | 699 | 182 | 67 |
| Apr 17 | 18702 | 155562 | 699 | 182 | 60 |
| Apr 18 | 18708 | 155667 | 699 | 182 | 62 |
| Apr 19 | 18731 | 155792 | 699 | 182 | 84 |
| Apr 20 | 18752 | 155974 | 699 | 182 | 100 |
| Apr 21 | 18761 | 156048 | 699 | 182 | 101 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.9 | 15.8% | 16 | 0.21% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.1 | 2% | 2 | 0.02% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.0 | 11.9% | 12 | 0.17% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 1.9 | 17.8% | 18 | 0.21% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 1.7 | 12.9% | 13 | 0.17% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.3 | 13.9% | 14 | 0.14% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.6 | 14.9% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.6 | 10.9% | 11 | 0.15% |
| All ages | 9 | 11.0 | 100% | 101 | 0.16% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | 13489 | 90743 | 546 | 143 | 38 |
| Apr 16 | 13493 | 90767 | 546 | 143 | 36 |
| Apr 17 | 13499 | 90807 | 546 | 143 | 39 |
| Apr 18 | 13503 | 90901 | 548 | 143 | 40 |
| Apr 19 | 13508 | 90960 | 548 | 143 | 40 |
| Apr 20 | 13516 | 91024 | 548 | 143 | 46 |
| Apr 21 | 13525 | 91053 | 548 | 143 | 52 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.8% | 2 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.3 | 5.8% | 3 | 0.06% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.1 | 5.8% | 3 | 0.07% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.4 | 13.5% | 7 | 0.13% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 1.4 | 19.2% | 10 | 0.2% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.3 | 7.7% | 4 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.7 | 15.4% | 8 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.0 | 28.8% | 15 | 0.24% |
| All ages | 9 | 5.6 | 100% | 52 | 0.11% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | 34877 | 312986 | 1025 | 182 | 186 |
| Apr 16 | 34885 | 313139 | 1025 | 182 | 185 |
| Apr 17 | 34895 | 313252 | 1025 | 182 | 171 |
| Apr 18 | 34906 | 313501 | 1025 | 182 | 162 |
| Apr 19 | 34945 | 313723 | 1025 | 182 | 191 |
| Apr 20 | 34981 | 313935 | 1025 | 182 | 221 |
| Apr 21 | 35023 | 314079 | 1025 | 182 | 243 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 2.4 | 11.5% | 28 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 3.4 | 14.4% | 35 | 0.21% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 3.3 | 12.8% | 31 | 0.15% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 3.6 | 12.3% | 30 | 0.22% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 3.9 | 14% | 34 | 0.25% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3.7 | 13.2% | 32 | 0.23% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2.9 | 11.9% | 29 | 0.2% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.6 | 9.9% | 24 | 0.18% |
| All ages | 42 | 24.7 | 100% | 243 | 0.21% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | 126459 | 2449004 | 2556 | 509 | 1541 |
| Apr 16 | 126587 | 2450560 | 2556 | 509 | 1594 |
| Apr 17 | 126667 | 2451597 | 2556 | 509 | 1371 |
| Apr 18 | 126754 | 2453213 | 2556 | 509 | 1315 |
| Apr 19 | 127138 | 2455819 | 2560 | 509 | 1612 |
| Apr 20 | 127445 | 2458541 | 2562 | 509 | 1850 |
| Apr 21 | 127716 | 2460387 | 2563 | 509 | 1979 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 45 | 32.9 | 15.3% | 302 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 35 | 26.9 | 13.3% | 264 | 0.37% |
| 20-29 | 35 | 31.1 | 15.3% | 303 | 0.29% |
| 30-39 | 55 | 33.7 | 16.5% | 327 | 0.43% |
| 40-49 | 39 | 30.1 | 15.4% | 304 | 0.46% |
| 50-59 | 23 | 19.6 | 10.3% | 204 | 0.31% |
| 60-69 | 23 | 15.9 | 8.1% | 160 | 0.29% |
| 70+ | 16 | 11.1 | 5.8% | 115 | 0.23% |
| All ages | 271 | 201.3 | 100% | 1979 | 0.36% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | 1595194 | 14297255 | 63580 | 14399 | 8167 |
| Apr 16 | 1595781 | 14305391 | 63588 | 14400 | 8134 |
| Apr 17 | 1596141 | 14311759 | 63599 | 14401 | 6864 |
| Apr 18 | 1596788 | 14322412 | 63608 | 14403 | 6859 |
| Apr 19 | 1598531 | 14337589 | 63630 | 14403 | 8118 |
| Apr 20 | 1599989 | 14353901 | 63652 | 14403 | 9242 |
| Apr 21 | 1601444 | 14362445 | 63663 | 14403 | 9922 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 160 | 106.7 | 10.4% | 1027 | 0.16% |
| 10-19 | 168 | 103.4 | 10.3% | 1018 | 0.13% |
| 20-29 | 210 | 146.9 | 15% | 1493 | 0.2% |
| 30-39 | 240 | 165.6 | 16.4% | 1627 | 0.21% |
| 40-49 | 187 | 139.4 | 13.6% | 1347 | 0.19% |
| 50-59 | 179 | 121.9 | 12.3% | 1225 | 0.15% |
| 60-69 | 156 | 110.6 | 11.1% | 1101 | 0.15% |
| 70+ | 155 | 111.9 | 10.9% | 1080 | 0.17% |
| All ages | 1455 | 1006.7 | 100% | 9922 | 0.17% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-05-17 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 14223"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges